And Then There Were Two

Robert F Kennedy Jr has failed to qualify for the Presidential debate hosted by CNN, leaving presumptive major party candidates Joe Biden and Donald Trump to face off in the first official contest of 2024.

While it is not unusual to have a bipartisan debate, the mechanisms of Kennedy's exclusion ring dubious this cycle. Qualification for participation is typically based on criteria set by a nonprofit organization recently rendered moot, the Commission on Presidential Debates (CPD).

Until the formation of the CPD in 1987, such oversight was under the purview of the League of Women Voters, who refused continued participation after similar candidate agitation thirty-five years ago. The League withdrew support after the campaigns of Michael Dukakis and George H W Bush began communicating with each other about which questions could be asked, who could participate, and even the height of the daises. The LWV, still operating today in other capacities, claimed that "the demands of the two campaign organizations would perpetrate a fraud on the American voter." In their absence, the RNC and DNC created the Commission on Presidential Debates, which their respective leaders co-chaired. Since 1987, the CPD has organized candidate contests outside direct party or network influence and provided independent oversight for these critical events.

Although the CPD was already intended to be bipartisan, such definition was no longer sufficient for the Biden and Trump campaigns. Their independent camps began colluding and making demands of the Commission earlier this year- before agreeing to circumvent the CPD entirely and allow select television networks to organize debates. Given that Presidential debates are typically the second highest-rated television viewership events of their requisite years, ranking just behind the Super Bowl, their hosting is incredibly sought after.

The debates will have a new operating procedure, including no live audience and mute buttons on candidate microphones. Alongside the new rules comes the same qualification formula, including placement on enough ballots to conceivably reach 270 electoral votes and 15% polling in four national polls. RFKJr has achieved neither. However, his complaint is rooted in the allegation that neither other participating candidate does, as nominating conventions have yet to occur, and both Trump and Biden are awaiting ballot placement in any state. Kennedy also contends that the polling requirement remains unfair, as many significant polls present an option for Trump or Biden, not allowing him to score organically but rather only to place as a write-in option. RFKJr currently averages roughly 13% in recognized national polls and has over 15 points in three.

Kennedy and his campaign filed a complaint last month with the Federal Election Commission, alleging CNN and other networks were committing campaign finance fraud by granting undue airtime to specific candidates without objective qualification guidelines. While the networks issued the same requirements as the Commission for Presidential Debates used to, they are certainly for-profit organizations rather than advisory bodies. The FEC has thus far declined to intervene, and it looks as though the debates will take place as scheduled.

Do you think Robert F Kennedy Jr should be allowed to participate in the Presidential debates? How much will his exclusion hurt his campaign?

Hilary Gunn is a Connecticut native with a degree in Criminal Justice from the George Washington University. She works for a nonprofit and has previously collaborated with the CT GOP as an activist, political campaign manager and field director, and social media organizer. She is currently serving in her fourth term of municipal office and has previously acted as a delegate on the Republican Town Committee.