Former President Donald Trump now famously asks the crowd at the beginning of his rallies: "Are you better off today than you were four years ago?" His question, mostly rhetorical given the makeup of MAGA events, is always answered with a resounding "NO!"
One must wonder, however, what the answer to this critical inquiry might be outside the bounds of solid Republicans already committed to voting for Donald Trump.
Metrics indicate that most Americans are not doing any better today than they were the day President Joe Biden was elected. A recent Gallup poll found that 52% of voters feel they are worse off than they were four years ago, with only 39% claiming their situation had improved and 9% reporting no change.
While similar questions are asked each election cycle, the "better off" response has not polled so low since 1992 when President George HW Bush famously lost his reelection bid to Bill Clinton. That year, 38% of voters felt their status had improved during his administration.
This is not the only unsettling poll, as Gallup's Economic Confidence Index remains equally dismal. In 2020's iteration, the index polled at negative four, while this year falling at negative twenty-six. Given that 43% of those asked reported the economy as their number one issue of concern this cycle, such low confidence is unlikely to err in the incumbents' favor.
The question was first famously introduced by then-candidate Ronald Reagan during the October 28th debate against incumbent Jimmy Carter, just days before the 1980 election. "Are you better off than you were four years ago? Is it easier for you to go and buy things in the store than it was four years ago? Is there more or less unemployment in the country… is America as respected in the world? Do you feel that our security is as safe? That we're as strong as we were four years ago? And if you answer all of those questions yes, why then I think your choice is very obvious… if you don't agree… then I could suggest another choice that you have." The question stripped away all tangential moral and partisan issues, leaving behind only the best interest of the American individual, family, and nation. Such rhetoric allowed voters to cross the aisle and vote for the best future, rather than basing decisions based on habit, loyalty, or registration.
The following week, Reagan became the first candidate since 1932 to defeat an incumbent President, the first Republican since 1888, and did so with a landslide victory, claiming 489 electoral votes against Carter's meager 49. Trump may just manage a repeat, with a similar setting and script as Reagan used 44 years ago.
Both candidates feature a passion for deregulation, a strong military, and an "America First" mentality, paired with similar inflation and instability presented by their predecessors. With parallel concerns and a familiar campaign message, voters could be primed to deliver the same overwhelming victory for Donald Trump in 2024 as they were conservative firebrand Ronald Reagan in both 1980 and 1984. His late-in-the-game campaign stop in deeply blue New York indicates significant optimism for a clean sweep, and the crowd's enthusiasm and size indeed signaled its possibility.
Hilary Gunn is a Connecticut native with a degree in Criminal Justice from the George Washington University. She works for a nonprofit and has previously collaborated with the CT GOP as an activist, political campaign manager and field director, and social media organizer. She is currently serving in her fourth term of municipal office and has previously acted as a delegate on the Republican Town Committee.