Following the President’s poor showing at the first election debate, many have begun to call for him to step aside, even within his own party. The Editorial Boards of the New York Times, the Chicago Tribune, and the Atlanta Journal-Constitution have all aggressively suggested an alternate candidate alongside prominent Democratic names such as James Carville, Joe Scarborough, and Paul Krugman.
Many officials are advocating that Vice President Kamala Harris replace Biden on the top of the ticket, as logic, but not necessarily precedent, would dictate. While the Vice President assumes the position in the case of Presidential death, dropping out is an entirely separate scenario. Three twentieth-century Presidents have declined to seek a second term, and only one was succeeded by his Vice President. All three instances led to the White House changing hands and the Presidency flipping party.
President Calvin Coolidge decided against running for a second term, though many believe he had already made up his mind before he won his first full four years in 1924. The summer before his ascension from VP, his 16-year-old son died of blood poisoning from an injury sustained at the White House. Some combination of rumored depression and a desire for more time with his remaining family ended Coolidge’s passion for public service. Coolidge opposed the nomination of his Vice President, Charles Dawes, due to animosity during their shared term. Instead, the Republicans nominated former Secretary of Commerce Herbert Hoover, who went on to win the 1928 election against New York Governor Al Smith with a comfortable margin.
VP Harry S Truman became President after the death of Franklin Roosevelt. He quickly presided over some of the most tumultuous moments of 20th-century diplomacy, including the dropping of the atomic bombs, rebuilding a peacetime economy, and the start of the Korean and Cold Wars. After he lost the coveted New Hampshire primary, Truman declined to seek his second full term, leaving Democrats to nominate Illinois Governor Adlai Stevenson, who eventually lost the seat to General Dwight D Eisenhower.
President Lyndon B. Johnson declined to run for a second term, publicly claiming it related to the ongoing Vietnam War but privately due to cardiac concerns and a desire not to die mid-term during such tumultuous times for his nation. While he would have survived one more term, he died shortly after the subsequent election. After Johnson stepped down, his Vice President, Hubert Humphrey, secured the nomination and lost to Richard Nixon.
Eschewing Kamala, however, is a feat distinctly more difficult, as it involves bypassing the first woman of color who would ever appear on the ballot for President, rather than a shuffling of familiar white men. Her popularity- or lack thereof- is of less importance than racial optics, which have become critical for the Democratic Brand. Particularly on the heels of the recension of Roe v Wade, to avoid a woman who has spent the last four years learning alongside Biden in favor of any other individual remains unspinnable and could damage the party’s stronghold into future cycles.
Do you think Biden will still run in 2024? If not, who will replace him?
Hilary Gunn is a Connecticut native with a degree in Criminal Justice from the George Washington University. She works for a nonprofit and has previously collaborated with the CT GOP as an activist, political campaign manager and field director, and social media organizer. She is currently serving in her fourth term of municipal office and has previously acted as a delegate on the Republican Town Committee.