Its The Economy, Stupid

In the most recent of the series of nightmares that (hopefully) keep Democratic presumptive nominee Kamala Harris awake at night, the stock market welcomed August by crashing, just three short months from election day. Already dealing with the optics of Biden-era inflation, Harris will now have to answer for significant dips in the investor economy, with indexes seeing their worst declines in years. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, NASDAQ, even typically safe-haven asset gold all began a dramatic descent on the heels of the Great Candidate Swap of 2024, throwing both domestic and international economies into chaos.

Republican Presidential nominee Donald Trump moved quickly to label the fiasco the "Kamala Crash," suggesting fears regarding her potential election have triggered the economic instability. If Harris lands her big promotion, investors worry the markets will continue to lose strength, as Biden administration policies have already begun to set in motion. The former President's son, Eric, likened the United States economy to a house with a leak in the roof and a potential Harris administration to an approaching storm. Donald himself went even further, warning of a potential Great Depression and even a possible World War III if the Vice President is elected.

The markets are seemingly in agreement, with massive global sell offs triggering the crash. Notably, the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) also reached its record-high during the tumble. VIX is known as the “fear gauge” of Wall Street and is seen as a predictor of the following thirty days of stability. The last time the index came close to current numbers was March 2020, fresh into a near total shutdown of the economy with no idea what was to come.

While inconvenient for investors and Democrats, the crash could prove a boon for the Trump campaign leading into its final stretch. Polling repeatedly shows that the economy is the number one concern for a majority of Americans in advance of the election, and most of them also trust Trump more on the subject than either Biden or Harris. Less than a quarter of Americans think the US economy is "excellent or good," with 62% seeing inflation as the nation's number one issue. Meanwhile, 51% of voters believe Trump is more capable of handling the economy, a number that is only likely to grow as Biden's economy keeps crashing down.

Particularly leading into candidate debates for both President and VP, the Vance/Trump team could meaningfully capitalize on market distress and make a valid case for a change in power. If voters feel the United States could be headed for an economic recession, there is very little chance they will allow the same oversight to continue, let alone a more progressive version in Harris. With Trump and Vance, the decided champions of personal success- both in their own lives and proposed policies- American voters will have difficulty opting instead for bureaucratic fairy tales.

How does the market crash impact your vote in November? Will it make a difference in the election?

Hilary Gunn is a Connecticut native with a degree in Criminal Justice from the George Washington University. She works for a nonprofit and has previously collaborated with the CT GOP as an activist, political campaign manager and field director, and social media organizer. She is currently serving in her fourth term of municipal office and has previously acted as a delegate on the Republican Town Committee.