Vice Presidential Hopefuls - A Brief History

Vice President Kamala Harris is the newly minted Democratic nominee, continuing a time-honored tradition of selecting a trusty number two to replace retiring Commanders in Chief. While the second in line generally secure the nomination with the greatest of ease, their actual grasp on the Presidency often remains elusive, abruptly ending typically lifelong dreams of the Oval Office.

While it is not entirely unusual for a Vice President to find himself promoted, such elevation often follows the death of a President rather than an open election. Just 15 of 49 vice presidents in American History—a scant 30%—have successfully made the transition, with more than half stemming from the untimely demise of their predecessor. One, Gerald Ford, managed the jump upon the resignation of Richard Nixon.

Just six American Vice Presidents have been elected President in their own right, a measly 12%. John Adams, Thomas Jefferson, Martin Van Burren, Richard Nixon, George HW Bush, and Joe Biden make up this select elite, with Kamala Harris hoping to join ranks in a few months. Adams and Jefferson did so under an election system in which the losing presidential candidate assumed the office of vice president, making both instances largely unrelated to today’s happenings and narrowing the list even further.

If she is unsuccessful, Harris will undergo one of the most tremendous political humiliations of the American system- overseeing the counting of her losing electoral votes, as is the Vice President’s responsibility. John Breckenridge (James Buchanan), Richard Nixon (Dwight D. Eisenhower), and Al Gore (Bill Clinton) all presided over their own ousting, although Nixon rose from the ashes eight years later to reclaim the White House.

Harris has little chance of making such an historic leap in legacy, particularly without even a partial cycle during which to demonstrate her capabilities. While she has enjoyed a moderate bump in approval since Biden stepped aside- 34% to 44% practically overnight, her honeymoon period will begin to disintegrate once she has to face off against Trump in earnest. She has spent the past three years doing precious little within the Beltway and can hardly brag about the current administration’s record. Simply working in the White House provides little preparation to assume the Presidency beyond familiarity with current issues in the case of the President’s untimely death, on which Donald Trump would be briefed if elected. Even President Biden was caught in 2010 on a hot microphone saying, “It’s easy being Vice President- you don’t have to do anything.”

 Even three debates didn’t impact previous hopeful Hillary Clinton’s massive 12% lead that reflected in polling right up until Election Day 2016. Many respondents hesitate to indicate support for a controversial candidate such as Donald Trump, particularly when paired with a perceived historic option such as Clinton or Harris. Now not only the first potential female President but also a woman of color, Harris is enjoying a reprieve that will certainly not hold up when Trump begins a deep dive into her personality and demeanor. With zero executive experience and likely having been complicit in the cover-up of President Biden’s poor health, the Vice President will have a rough remaining road to November.

Do you feel Vice President Harris will be elected President? Has her time as VP helped or hurt her chances with such a late-stage substitution?

Hilary Gunn is a Connecticut native with a degree in Criminal Justice from the George Washington University. She works for a nonprofit and has previously collaborated with the CT GOP as an activist, political campaign manager and field director, and social media organizer. She is currently serving in her fourth term of municipal office and has previously acted as a delegate on the Republican Town Committee.